In addition to the Achievement Rates based on the official ESFA specification, PICS also includes the option to show projected Achievement Rates based on learner planned end dates. These figures are available through the Achievement Rate Forecast Table Type and are intended to indicate your minimum and maximum achievement rates in the current report year using the current data.
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It is also possible to view the Achievement Rate Forecast as a chart showing the minimum, actual and maximum achievement rates for the report year.
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How the Achievement Rates Forecast is Calculated
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Calculate the “actual” Achievement Rates based on the required report type. The learners included in the report for the current year form the actual cohort.
Calculate the extended cohort - this contains any learner which is not included in the actual rates cohort above, but is expected to achieve in the current year, and not excluded from Achievement Rates. The extended cohort is calculated slightly differently for each report type, total type (overall / timely) and forecast type (minimum / maximum) - see the sections below.
The various totals are calculated as follows:
Maximum / Minimum Leavers: Add the total number of leavers in the actual and extended cohorts
Maximum Achievers: Add the number of Achievers from the actual cohort and add the number of learners in the extended cohort. This assumes that all possible learners in the extended cohort will achieve.
Maximum Achievement Rate: Maximum Achievers ➗ Maximum Leavers ✖ 100
Minimum Achievers: Take the number of Achievers in the actual cohort, but do not add any extra learners. This assumes that all possible learners in the extended cohort will not achieve.
Minimum Achievement Rate: Minimum Achievers ➗ Minimum Leavers ✖ 100
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