In addition to the Achievement Rates based on the official ESFA specification, PICS also includes the option to show projected Achievement Rates based on learner planned end dates. These figures are available through the Achievement Rate Forecast Table Type and are intended to indicate your minimum and maximum achievement rates in the current report year using the current data.

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It is also possible to view the Achievement Rate Forecast as a chart showing the minimum, actual and maximum achievement rates for the report year.

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How the Achievement Rates Forecast is Calculated

In simple terms, the Achievement Rate Forecast is calculated by adding any aims which are not ended but are expected to end within the report range to the “actual” achievement rate, and assuming that all of them achieve (maximum achievement rate) or none of them achieve (minimum achievement rate).

The calculations are as follows:

• Calculate the “actual” Achievement Rates based on the required report type. The learners included in the report for the current year form the actual cohort.

• Calculate the extended cohort - this contains any learner which is not included in the actual rates cohort above, but is expected to achieve in the current year, and not Excluded from Achievement Rates. The extended cohort is calculated slightly differently for each report type, total type (overall / timely) and forecast type (minimum / maximum) - see the sections below.

• The various totals are calculated as follows:

  • Maximum / Minimum Leavers: Add the total number of leavers in the actual and extended cohorts

  • Maximum Achievers: Add the number of Achievers from the actual cohort and add the number of learners in the extended cohort. This assumes that all possible learners in the extended cohort will achieve.

  • Maximum Achievement Rate: Maximum Achievers Maximum Leavers 100

  • Minimum Achievers: Take the number of Achievers in the actual cohort, but do not add any extra learners. This assumes that all possible learners in the extended cohort will not achieve.

  • Minimum Achievement Rate: Minimum Achievers Minimum Leavers 100

Apprenticeship (Programmes)

In addition to the Main Apprenticeships Programme Cohort, the extended cohort for these Min/Max figures is calculated as follows:

Maximum Overall Achievement Rates

• Actual End Date = blank or the aim is at End Point Assessment

• Episode Expected End or Aim Planned End date (whichever is later) <= the report end date

The episode expected end date is used as we expect the End Point Assessment period (and therefore the aim achievement date) to be completed on this date. This is not used for Minimum Achievement rates.

Minimum Overall Achievement Rates

• Aim Actual End date = blank or the aim is at End Point Assessment

• Aim Planned End date <= the report end date

Maximum & Minimum Timely Achievement Rates

• Aim is not already included in actual timely total

• Aim Actual End date = blank

• Aim Planned End date <= report end date

• Aim Planned End date is in the same academic year as the report end date

Apprenticeship (Component aims), Education & Training and Traineeship Reports

The extended cohort for these reports also include aims matching the following criteria:

Maximum & Minimum Overall Achievement Rates

• Aim Actual End date = blank

• Aim Planned End date <= the report end date

Maximum & Minimum Timely Achievement Rates

• Aim is not already included in actual timely total

• Aim Actual End date = blank

• Aim Planned End date <= report end date

• Aim Planned End date is in the same academic year as the report end date